Tag: technical analysis

Happy New Year!

I think the biggest surprise to me was the outperformance of both the financials (XLF) and consumer discretionary (XLY). Comparatively speaking, the Dow (DIA) closed on the lows for the year while the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Nasdaq (QQQ) outperformed. Energy (XLE) and utilities (XLU) were crushed. Here’s a look at the 2012 VWAPs for

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Market Perspective 12/12/12

On the 12th day of the 12th month of the 12th year of this century there are 12 trading days left. I thought it would be interesting to see where the ETFs of the major indices are trading. One of the easiest ways to do this is by dividing the price action into quarters from

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Change In Sentiment Via Price

SHORT TERM Taking a look at a 30-minute chart of the SPX you can see that the overall trend is down. Several levels of one-time support have given way providing the next level of support to be tested. Assuming a short-term low is in (we are entering bullish seasonality) you can see the 50% retracement

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Market View

I mainly focus on the SPX in my analysis as that’s what I trade. Here’s some charts that caught my eye this weekend. Keep in mind that we have the FOMC Wednesday afternoon and the bullish tendency that accompanies that day. If Monday is a down day I’d expect it to be bought up going

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On Average True Range (ATR)

The average true range (ATR) is a measurement of volatility based on price action moving beyond a defined average (the default is 14 periods and what I’m using for now). In a sense, the ATR is telling us that something is afoot about the stock/sector/etf/market. I recently started tracking the intraday movement of the ATR

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How Strong Was Today?

Take a look at the SPX chart below that shows a daily close .42% outside the +2 standard deviation for volatility. Going back 5 years there were five other occasions where SPX closed, on a daily basis, outside the +2 standard deviation. Those dates were 3/23/09, 10/13/08, 9/19/08, 4/1/08 and 3/21/07. Look them up. As

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Weekly Weeder

Ah yes, it’s option expiration week. Hated by so many as a time of market manipulation yet also a time that many get paid, such as myself. Whether or not you believe in option shenanigans during opex is irrelevant. What matters is that you have a trading plan for the week. Perhaps you don’t trade

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One Way I Use The Relative Strength Index (RSI)

I was asked more than once on twitter this week how I use the RSI information that I tweet on occasion so I thought I’d write a quick post to answer the question. I trade the $SPX and so I keep a running tally on the components and what they are doing. Seems daunting at

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Perfect Storm?

Recall from last week’s update: Bottom line is that it appears more likely that the gap at 1312.62 gets filled this coming week. Memorial day isn’t that far off and historically the market hasn’t done well the week before Memorial day. That gap could be considered low hanging fruit at this point so we will

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Fun With Fibonacci

I don’t place trades based on Fibinacci levels but I look at them because I know others that I compete with in the market are looking at them and trading off of them. Assuming yesterday’s high was the extent of the bounce, then it’s normal to be looking for a lower low below 133.02 to

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