Tag: $spx

Change In Sentiment Via Price

SHORT TERM Taking a look at a 30-minute chart of the SPX you can see that the overall trend is down. Several levels of one-time support have given way providing the next level of support to be tested. Assuming a short-term low is in (we are entering bullish seasonality) you can see the 50% retracement

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Nervous Tick

Wednesday’s selling was more than just mom and pop worried about the fiscal cliff that they’ve been inundated with of late. In fact, if you look at this chart you can see that there has been relentless selling since the election was called Tuesday night and the cash market opened Wednesday. Perhaps THIS is the

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Thoughts On The SPY

Before reading further please consider my trading style. I sell premium in far out-of-the-money options which allows me to be less specific on technical levels. In other words, I’m not buying a put or a call that can lose value as price moves and time work against me. When you buy options the underlying needs

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Market View

I mainly focus on the SPX in my analysis as that’s what I trade. Here’s some charts that caught my eye this weekend. Keep in mind that we have the FOMC Wednesday afternoon and the bullish tendency that accompanies that day. If Monday is a down day I’d expect it to be bought up going

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What’s the deal with Thursdays before opex?

Is there any truth to the saying that the Thursday before option expiration is typically the low heading into the next week? In a word, no. I’ve heard this line mentioned several times by some well respected traders that I thought I should take the time to find out for sure. Bottom line is that

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April’s SPX Range

As a premium seller I’ve already been in the month of April for two weeks. One of the data points I track is the range for both the option cycle and the month. On average, over the past 10 years, the range for opex is 78.2 points while the monthly range is 72.74 points. If

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What’s The 30-Day Volatility Telling Us?

I promised myself that I wasn’t going to post anything until my book is done…just another failed New Years resolution I guess. If you look at the chart below you can see that I’ve marked up a few points of interest. The short-term top (1343) for the ramp into 2011 came on February’s option expiration

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How Strong Was Today?

Take a look at the SPX chart below that shows a daily close .42% outside the +2 standard deviation for volatility. Going back 5 years there were five other occasions where SPX closed, on a daily basis, outside the +2 standard deviation. Those dates were 3/23/09, 10/13/08, 9/19/08, 4/1/08 and 3/21/07. Look them up. As

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1982 vs. 1974

There is no doubt been some aggressive price action over the past two weeks in the broader market. So much so that this October is off to the third best start of any, trailing that of ’82 and ’74. In 1974 the SPX had a 14.5% gain in the first two weeks and went on

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Another Brick

I love using the hard work and knowledge of others rather than stretching my own resources so thin that I’m unable to focus on my core strategy of selling premium. I subscribe to several newsletters of those that I believe are tops in their areas of expertise, not for trade ideas but rather to gauge

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