The November settlement price for the SPX was 1221.58. Last year’s settlement price was 1195.73. That’s a mere 2.16% gain over the past year so all you buy and hold market participants can spend that increase and spread some holiday cheer. I wrote a post last year about December’s cycle and how it can be deceiving in that there is an increased chance of a large discrepancy from the opex (settlement) close and the month’s end close. Perhaps some of that has to do with the fact that this coming week is one of the better weeks of the year for equities.

Given that we just broke out of the triangle this past week it’s pretty easy to see that the 50-day SMA is low hanging fruit. Last year at this same time we were close to touching the 50-day and the market found it as support. The obvious difference is that what was to the left of that test looks nothing like what we’ve been through the past few months. The volatility bands have been solid the past three weeks and if they continue through week 4 then the 50-day SMA and historical positiveness of Thanksgiving week should stand.

I’d like to thank those of you that came to see me in Las Vegas and those that watched the webcast. It’s always nice to put a face with a name. I’ll post links to the webcast and questions when they are made available to me. Enjoy the links and your weekend!