Another Brick

I love using the hard work and knowledge of others rather than stretching my own resources so thin that I’m unable to focus on my core strategy of selling premium. I subscribe to several newsletters of those that I believe are tops in their areas of expertise, not for trade ideas but rather to gauge my risk. Here’s an example from Bespoke:

These charts above are the three times, post FOMC, since Big Ben took over that the $SPX closed more than 2% from its post statement high. Two things stuck out to me. One is that there was a gain every single time and two that the gap, whether up or down, was filled each time. Neither of those events occurred yesterday so we have an outlier and my desire to sell put premium lessens.

Another great resource I use is Sentiment Trader as Jason tracks more data points than I could ever keep up with. Here’s a piece from his sentiment report Wednesday evening:

“There has only been one other time that the S&P sank more than 2% while the yield on 10-year notes also sank more than 2% on the day the FOMC announced a rate decision.  That was 12/11/07, after which the S&P rose slightly for two days, then fell hard in the weeks following.”

Obviously that didn’t pan out either so once again I become concerned that this market is a beast of it’s own and thus my risk should be minimal until some clarity arises. One other expert I want to mention is Bill Luby of VIX and More who produces a weekly newsletter on volatility (and much more). Here’s a snippet from his Wednesday letter:

On the macro side of things I defer to Dave over at The Macro Trader and his weekly newsletter. Like Jason, Dave tracks more data points than I care to imagine. Not only does Dave track interesting data points but couches his analysis in easy to understand terms. He’s more than willing to share his knowledge in a one-on-one setting via email or phone. If there is one area I lack in the most it’s the macro side of things and I’ve been a subscriber to Dave’s newsletter since inception.

I spend very little money to pay these experts for their take on the market and the data that accompanies their thinking. I like to think of these services as my own (inexpensive) research team and the data they provide is truly priceless. As I mentioned earlier, I’m not making trades off seasonality or tendencies but rather gauging my risk appetite as the market rhymes or runs on in a drunken slur.