Category: Commentary

Finding your niche

I truly believe that in order for both success and longevity in the market one needs to specialize. Having a systematic approach to the markets is a proven winner. I’ve taken the time to round up some of the systems that are out there to help you decide. Enjoy! Hope: There is nothing quite like

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Change In Sentiment Via Price

SHORT TERM Taking a look at a 30-minute chart of the SPX you can see that the overall trend is down. Several levels of one-time support have given way providing the next level of support to be tested. Assuming a short-term low is in (we are entering bullish seasonality) you can see the 50% retracement

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Nervous Tick

Wednesday’s selling was more than just mom and pop worried about the fiscal cliff that they’ve been inundated with of late. In fact, if you look at this chart you can see that there has been relentless selling since the election was called Tuesday night and the cash market opened Wednesday. Perhaps THIS is the

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Thoughts On The SPY

Before reading further please consider my trading style. I sell premium in far out-of-the-money options which allows me to be less specific on technical levels. In other words, I’m not buying a put or a call that can lose value as price moves and time work against me. When you buy options the underlying needs

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Market View

I mainly focus on the SPX in my analysis as that’s what I trade. Here’s some charts that caught my eye this weekend. Keep in mind that we have the FOMC Wednesday afternoon and the bullish tendency that accompanies that day. If Monday is a down day I’d expect it to be bought up going

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October’s Option Cycle

The MLB playoffs isn’t the only wild event going on in early October. We are entering option expiration! And it’s an election year as well. Rob Hanna (@QuantEdges) over at Quantifiable Edges was nice enough to let me share the graphic below. This setup looks at buying the S&P 500 the Friday before option expiration

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SPY Weekly Options Data

Back in June of 2010 the CBOE started listing weekly options on the SPY. Here’s some interesting data about the weekly options since that date:

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QE3 Complacency

There’s no denying that the market was overextended as a result of last week’s Fed decision. So far this week we’ve seen a small pullback in price while many of the short-term indicators have worked off their overbought readings. As long as price stays above the 5-day SMA and the net delta leaning bullish for

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ShrinkyLinks

Finally saw a down week in the markets though not much of a move lower thanks to Friday’s move. Interestingly enough, Friday’s move closed right at the linear regression trend line from the 2009 lows [chart]. I would not be surprised to see a move higher into the Jackson Hole Symposium next week which starts

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ShrinkyLinks

The August option cycle is done as we head into the September cycle with a bevy of catalysts including the Fed meeting on the 12th and 13th.  Next week’s fireworks could be the expiration of the August futures for VIX that are running at a significant premium to the VIX. The one catalyst in September

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