Overconfidence leads to underperformance
Stock market bubbles exist when stocks are overvalued but can be difficult to truly measure as” value” is a subjective metric. Bubbles are easily seen in hindsight as the warning signs that may have suggested the bubble tend to glare; this is known as hindsight bias. However, the issue I have with hindsight bias is that it encourages a view of the bubble as being more predictable than it really was.
As an example, one needs to look no further than the sub-prime mortgage mess we are still dealing with today. Yeah, it seems obvious now to look back and see the proverbial writing on the wall, but why wasn’t it so easy to see back then? Don’t know and don’t care as that’s not what this post is about.
This post is about the bubbles that we can create in our own trading. I’m referring to the overconfidence that many experience at some point in a trading career. Don’t get me wrong, confidence is needed in yourself, your system, and the market as a whole in order for trading to work. However, overconfidence in any of these areas can lead to low probable trading as over-trading occurs. It’s easy to become overconfident after a string of wins and many traders fall victim, especially males.
Researchers Barber and Odean looked at 35,000 trading accounts over a period of six years to see if overconfident investors trade excessively. The results should not be too surprising, but this is what they found. Single men trade 67 percent more than single women. In addition, this over-trading reduced the male’s returns by 1.44 percentage points per year more than the single women.
Bottom line is that overconfidence can lead to over-trading which leads to diminished returns, regardless of gender. A lack of preparation can often be blamed for the overconfidence as one “trades from the hip” versus planning and preparing for each day. Trading is a difficult and like any other business it demands hard work (effort) on the participant’s part. Despite what the “gurus” tell you, it’s not that easy to make it as a trader; it’s not impossible either.
Trading is no different than anything else in life in that you get out of it what you put into it. That doesn’t mean that if you dive into everything trading and start reading books, posts, tweets, etc. that you’ll be successful. There has to be a method to your research, a pattern if you will. Look at what others do, ask questions, and form your own routine and give it a test drive.
Extroversion and Trading
Personality can be defined as a dynamic and organized set of characteristics possessed by a person that uniquely influences his or her cognitions, motivations, and behaviors in various situations. One such situation is trading and the basis for the personality assessment that I created called the MAP (Market Awareness Profile).
The Big Five factors of personality are broad dimensions of personality and have been a staple in personality theory since the 1960s. I chose to use this model for the MAP for the same reasons I chose it when doing my doctoral dissertation—reliability. The five broad domains discussed in the model are:
- Openness to change
- Conscientiousness
- Extroversion
- Agreeableness
- Neuroticism
In a series of posts over the next few months I’m going to discuss not only these broad dimensions, but the six facets that accompany each of the dimensions. For this post I’ve decided to start with extroversion as most people are familiar with it and have probably believe they are or have been called either an extrovert or introvert.
Extroversion and introversion are most typically viewed as being on a continuum and that each of us reside there, somewhere. The important thing to remember though is that we can fluctuate during different periods of our lives. As an example, I may be an extrovert when trading and an introvert while riding on the train to work. Introversion is not the same as being shy. It is more of a choice than a fear of social encounters. I may choose to be alone on the train so that I can focus on a task versus being alone because I lack self-confidence and a belief that I could contribute at a social level.
In trading, an extrovert may be more inclined to take risks and thrive off trading with “an edge” whereas an introvert may be more prone to an aversion of risk. Both can be debilitating to trading success if not kept in check. This task is often hard to do alone and one of the reasons why traders who are held accountable by a “boss” are more likely to be successful versus going it alone and unchecked.
One of the more defined facets of the extroversion scale is assertiveness. High scorers on this facet are more likely to approach trading with confidence, as they do life. The key is to not let this turn into over confidence as the market has a way of humbling those that do. Odds are good that these traders will attempt to buy bottoms and sell tops. They are less inclined to have a trend following system or strategy which would require patience.
Low scorers tend to not fight the tape and trade with the flow and follow trends. They are more likely to use a conservative system or strategy that buys/sells only after confirmation of a break of resistance/support. Odds are good that fundamental analysis is a part of their system as well and that price action is typically left for larger time-frames such as daily and weekly periods.
Obviously, as stated earlier, we will find ourselves employing a strategy or following a system akin to those just mentioned. We may also have experienced several different strategies and systems and still feel as though the holy grail is out of reach. On the other hand, perhaps we've found a system or strategy that fits our personality and the marriage is one of success. If you are at that point, congratulations! If you are not quite there, patience, perseverance and the insight gained from a personality profile could lend itself nicely to the journey.
Now if you read this post and think it’s a bunch of crap, I offer this. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people are aware of moving averages and have heard and/or tried a system based upon a cross of the moving averages. In fact, there are some well known systems that are out there for anyone to use and some traders have proven to be quite successful using them. Why then is it that so many people fail at being a successful trader with all these proven systems out there? I’d argue that a big piece of that puzzle is the baggage (personality) that we each bring to the market.
I'd further argue that if you've been lucky enough to weather the markets for a period of time that you have tried several strategies and systems. Perhaps you've found one that fits your personality and you've found success. How much time, money, effort and other resources were spent to get to where you are now? If you'd only known then what you knew now, you could have saved so much. That is why I believe having a good idea of what you're wired for in life can and does impact your trading. With that knowledge, you can save valuable resources and get to where you want to be more efficiently.
